The Impact of Global Warming on Olive Trees and the Attack and Development of Olive Fruit Flies

Research indicates an increase in drought during key stages of plant development, based on observed changes in temperature and precipitation, especially evident in spring and summer, coinciding with reproductive phases of fruit setting and development in the olive life cycle. Adult flies can survive between 6°C and 30°C, while larvae develop between 6°C and 30°C, with optimal temperatures between 22°C and 25°C. Laboratory tests show larval development lasts 37 days at 12.5°C and 9 days at 30°C. It is estimated that 130 degree days above 10°C and 186 degree days above 7.6°C are needed for development. Eggs can develop between 5°C and 37°C, with an optimum at 27°C. Monitoring the effects of rising temperatures, atmospheric CO2 levels, and variable rainfall patterns is useful for predicting impacts on insects relevant to agriculture. As the climate warms, the distribution of olive trees is expected to expand to higher altitudes and inland areas, shifting cultivation zones northward and to higher elevations in Montenegro. This will influence decisions on protecting olive fruit flies, establishing new olive groves, and selecting olive varieties. Continuous cooperation between authorities and services monitoring pests and making protection decisions is essential, along with collaboration with olive growers' associations and media to ensure timely dissemination of information and alerts regarding extreme climate events.